The NBA In-Season Tournament continues tonight when the Milwaukee Bucks meet the Miami Heat for an NBA Eastern Conference Group B group play matchup.
Milwaukee leads Group B with an immaculate 3-0 record, while Miami is 2-1 in group play and would like nothing more than to hand the Bucks their first In-Season Tournament loss.
Join me as I take a closer look at the NBA odds with free NBA picks as I preview the Bucks vs. Heat for Tuesday, November 28.
Bucks vs Heat odds
Bucks vs Heat predictions
Tonight should be an excellent battle between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.
The Milwaukee Bucks have won four of their last five and own the second-best record in the NBA. They beat the Miami Heat 122-114 in an October contest where they were healthy for the most part, but Bam Adebayo was on the shelf.
Injuries will play a role in this contest as well. Milwaukee has already ruled out forward Jae Crowder, and forward Khris Middleton is questionable after missing Sunday’s home win over Portland.
Miami has injury issues of its own. Leading scorer Tyler Herro has already been ruled out while Jimmy Butler and Haywood Highsmith are listed as game-time decisions (editor’s note: Jimmy Butler was ruled out after publication). Adebayo and Duncan Robinson are listed as probable, but each player has been nursing injuries. What a mess.
The Bucks are anywhere from a -2.5 to -3.5-point favorite tonight, but I have a problem with laying points against the wounded Heat because Milwaukee doesn’t cover anywhere. They are 6-10-1 ATS overall and 4-4-0 in the road jerseys, and I believe the Heat will win this game.
The way Miami usually wins at home is to walk the ball up the floor, take as much time as it can off the shot clock, and then go to work late in the clock. The Heat will surely miss Herro, but they’ll likely have Adebayo, Robinson, and Butler tonight. Kyle Lowry is draining 45% from downtown during November, and they should have enough offense to outscore Milwaukee.
Finally, the Heat win games the old-fashioned way. They allow an 11th-best 109 points per game at Kesaya Center and face a Bucks team with a .500 record in the away jerseys. Milwaukee will be in trouble defensively if Middleton doesn’t dress, and a Bucks defense already allowing 119 points per game on the road is going to be in trouble against a Heat team that is 4-0-0 straight up at home over their past four against Milwaukee.
My best bet: Heat moneyline (+122 at Caesars)
Bucks vs Heat same-game parlay
For me, there is only one way to play this game. The Bucks are a .500 team away from Fiserv and don’t cover the spread when they do win.
Miami wins games with its defense, and the only way for the Heat to win this game is to slow down Bucks All-Stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. The Greek Freak averages just 16.1 points per game over 16 career games at Kaseya Center. Lillard averages 28.5 in 10 games at Miami, and they meet a Heat defense allowing a sixth-best 107.8 points per game at home. The Heat score the 21st-most points per game at home and will be without leading scorer Herro, which will hurt against this Bucks defense.
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Bucks vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
Caesars opened this matchup with Miami at +130, and that number is trending downward to +122. That likely means Butler will suit up, and if you fancy Miami, grab that price now. Otherwise, it won’t be there once the final injury report is released.
Milwaukee opened as a -155 away favorite at Caesars and is still the same price. Laying $155 to win $100 on a 4-4-0 away team may not be the best idea, but you can get Milwaukee for as low as -143 at BetRivers.
Miami opened as a +3.0 (-110) underdog at Caesars. That number moved to -2.5 (-110) as I wrote this preview.
Caesars opened the Over at 225.5, and that number has risen to 228.5 (-110). Again, the betting public is beginning to back Miami, and Butler likely suiting up is probably responsible for the jump.
Bucks vs Heat betting trend to know
The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 47 games (+24.55 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Heat.
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Bucks vs Heat game info
|Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
|Tuesday, November 28, 2023
|7:30 p.m. ET
Bucks vs Heat latest injuries
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