Joel Embiid looks exactly like you’d expect a reigning MVP to look, forming a new duo for the ages alongside superstar-on-the-rise Tyrese Maxey. Our betting picks are going to center around the Cameroonian big, but which market will we target?

The NBA in-season tournament resumes on Tuesday, November 21, and one of the crucial matchups is in East Group A between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are 2-1 in the IST, and a win over the 1-1 Cavaliers would be a big boost after they suffered a surprise loss to the Indiana Pacers on Friday.

The Cavaliers will be without star guard Donovan Mitchell, but his absence didn’t prevent them from taking down the defending champion Denver Nuggets last time out. So while the NBA odds paint this one as an easy Philadelphia win, that’s why they play the games.

Nevertheless, our NBA picks and predictions for Cavaliers vs. 76ers expect Joel Embiid to dominate the matchup against Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Let’s dive in.

Cavaliers vs 76ers odds

Cavaliers vs 76ers predictions

Joel Embiid has that MVP look about him again. While he’s unlikely to win it in back-to-back seasons, the Philadelphia 76ers big has integrated seamlessly with Nick Nurse’s new offense and Tyrese Maxey’s superstar rise to become the best version of himself we’ve ever seen.

On paper, a team like the Cleveland Cavaliers should be a tricky matchup for Embiid. They start two nominal centers and have size and length to prevent the Cameroonian superstar from getting inside. But games aren’t played on paper.

For an analogous example as to why the Cavs are vulnerable against Embiid despite their size, we need only take a look at the Cavaliers’ last game against the Denver Nuggets. 

The scheme the Cavaliers used to defend Nikola Jokic can provide some insight into how they intend to guard Embiid. They started by having Jarrett Allen defend him one-on-one, and then having Evan Mobley flood over to help if Jokic got too close to the basket. 

However, doubling Embiid is a less appetizing prospect this year than ever. His assist rate is up to 31.5%, per Cleaning the Glass, by far a career-high. More and more teams are living (and dying) with Embiid in single coverage. But Allen is not strong enough to deal with Embiid in the post, or quick enough to bother him when facing up.

When they didn’t have the Twin Towers on the floor against Denver, whoever was playing four — such as Georges Niang — would help the center ball deny Jokic on the perimeter. Embiid likes to face up more and shoot from inside the arc, and the 76ers can comfortably get him the ball in the nail area around the free-throw line.

Cleveland also relies on real minutes from Tristan Thompson as the backup five because Mobley doesn’t have the size to bang with the elite centers like Jokic and Embiid yet.  Single game +/- isn’t a tell-all, but the Cavaliers were a -23 in his 11 minutes, as Jokic routinely cooked him. Embiid will have the same edge any time Allen has to hit the bench.

Ultimately, the only answer the Cavs had for Jokic was his own foul trouble. That bodes well for a highly productive night from Embiid, as he rarely gets in foul trouble of his own.

If he gets a seal on the block against Allen, let alone Mobley or Thompson, they functionally have to foul him or concede a dunk. And Maxey has gotten so much better at making the post-entry pass early in the possession that this is inevitable several times a game. 

Embiid is averaging 32 points per game over his last five despite his 3-point shot not falling. If he hits a couple from deep or just gets to the line as he’s capable of doing, he should make short work of this Cavs frontcourt.

My best bet: Joel Embiid Over 29.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Cavaliers vs 76ers same-game parlay

I’m keeping it simple for tonight’s same-game parlay by pairing Embiid’s scoring prop with the game total Over at 220.5 and the 76ers Moneyline. 

One reason I feel confident in Embiid’s ability to rack up points is how easily he draws fouls. And while the Cavaliers have done a good job showing restraint at home, Cleveland has been quite foul-prone on the road. 

At 21.7 personal fouls committed per game, the Cavs commit the third most of any NBA team. That spells death against Embiid, who is as gifted as prime James Harden at foul grifting but he’s in a 7-foot, 280-pound body.

I ultimately like the 76ers to win this game without Mitchell in action, but the line is a bit too big for me to take Philadelphia to cover. I’m a believer that Darius Garland can raise the offensive floor of this group with Mitchell absent enough to hit Over 220.5.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.