England (0 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw) welcomes Italy (1-1-0) to Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton, England Saturday. Kickoff for the 3rd of 6 group stage games is set for 2:45 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the England vs. Italy odds and lines, and make our best UEFA Nations League bets, picks and predictions.
The two global soccer powerhouses will highlight just a handful of premier games in the 3rd round of the group stage. Italy failed to qualify for the 2022 Qatar World Cup but still sits 6th on FIFA’s men’s rankings.
Italy is led by M Nicolò Barella, who scored the winning goal against Hungary in a 2-1 Tuesday. Italy drew Germany 1-1 in its 1st game (June 4).
England sit 5th in the world and will play in a group with Iran, USA, and Wales in the November World Cup.
England is led by F Harry Kane but has struggled in Nations League play. Chelsea M Mason Mount and Manchester City F Raheem Sterling help highlight the elite English attack.
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England vs. Italy odds, lines, picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:37 a.m. ET.
Money line: England -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Italy +330 (bet $100 to win $330) | Draw +230
Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +122 | U: -150)
Italy 1, England 1
Money line (ML)
LEAN DRAW (+230).
While I like the draw in this match, I also wouldn’t mind combining the draw and Italy to win at -122.
The home side is the far favorite, but England hasn’t played like it as of late. England lost to Hungary 1-0 by a penalty June 4 and only drew Germany 1-1 Tuesday because of a penalty.
England had fewer shots than Hungary and was out possessed by Germany 63% to 37%. England just hasn’t shown much despite being one of the better teams in the world.
Italy, on the other hand, doesn’t have a World Cup to play for. This is it. Italy has many young, up-and-coming prospects that have already started to show promise.
I expect Italy, as it has proven, to keep this game competitive.
BET UNDER 2.5 (-150).
This is by far the best bet in this match. It’s worth the extra bit of juice. England’s first 2 games saw scores of 1-0 and 1-1 – with 2 of the 3 goals being penalty kicks.
Italy’s first 2 games were 1-1 and 2-1, but the lone Hungary goal in the 2-1 loss to Italy was an own goal.
The Nations League games just haven’t been high scoring, and I wouldn’t bank that this one is either.
Also, as mentioned Italy has a young team and doesn’t have a player on its current roster that has more than 10 goals and no player has more than 50 caps.
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