The spread has been set at Denver -12, with the total at 228.5, and while both could be of interest to bettors, you always have to be wary of big spreads.
While Denver seem favourable for a number of reasons, there’s always the possibility of Detroit sneaking in the back door to cover the spread.
The Pistons went to Denver and won earlier this season which was quite the surprise. The Nuggets are seeking revenge for that loss, and it might also be an opportunity to steady the ship, as they’re on a poor run and allowing far too many points.
We’ll avoid betting on Denver or Detroit, because neither side is in form and one is just outright awful. Detroit are also down half a squad with injuries to many important players.
But my first instinct about this game was that the points total could be too low. Six of Denver’s last eight reached 230 and beyond. In the past week they’ve lost 128-120 to San Antonio, 120-122 to Brooklyn, and 125-110 to Toronto.
We’ve already made some money on them when the total against San Antonio flew over last weekend, and we’ll go back to the same bet this evening. This defence is leaky and whilst the Pistons are a good opportunity to fix that, do they need to?
Detroit themselves give up 118 points per game at home but that usually increases against good winning teams. Denver have no issues scoring, averaging 115 points per game over their last 10, and they should be able to reach the 120-mark here.
One interesting thing to note about Detroit is that they shot just 38 per cent in their last game. That’s pretty drab, but it’s an angle to exploit. The theory goes that you just aren’t likely to shoot that bad a number again, and maybe they’ll fancy their chances against the Nuggets right now.
If Denver can’t fix their defensive woes early in this one, then they may just have to accept it for what it is. Both teams play at a quicker than average pace, and it could become an end to end shootout, and that’s a game Denver can win against this Detroit team.
The Pistons are on a 10-4 run over the total when hosting winning teams, and the over is 5-2 when they’re an underdog here of 11 or more points. Whilst there are no sample sizes of real note for the Nuggets, they are on a 5-1 run over the total on the road.
Even if Denver do a better job of slowing their opponent down tonight, you can make a strong case for a good Nuggets offensive performance leading to 120, 125+ points, leaving Detroit with little to contribute to our total.
The action starts at 19:00 EST (23:00 UK time)
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