The New Mexico Lobos (2-7, 0-5 MWC) meet the Air Force Falcons (6-3, 2-3) Saturday at Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, Colo. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the New Mexico vs. Air Force odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Lobos were dusted 27-10 and failed to cover as 14.5-point underdogs on the road against Utah State last week, dropping their 6th consecutive game, while going 1-5 ATS during the skid. The Lobos have scored 10 or fewer points in 3 straight games, and 14 or fewer points in 5 of the past 6 games overall.
The Falcons scratched out a 13-7 win over Army last week in a neutral-site game, earning bowl eligibility in the process. Air Force has alternated wins and losses across the past 5 games while going just 1-4 ATS during the stretch.
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New Mexico at Air Force odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:33 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): New Mexico +975 (bet $100 to win $975) | Air Force -2500 (bet $2,500 to win $100)
- Against the spread: New Mexico +21 (-107) | Air Force -21 (-113)
- Over/Under (O/U): 37.5 (O: -111 | U: -109)
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New Mexico at Air Force picks and predictions
Air Force 31, New Mexico 6
Air Force (-2500) will cost you 25 times your potential return, meaning a $100 wager will net you a profit of just $4. That’s too much risk for not enough reward.
Against the spread
AIR FORCE -21 (-113) is worth playing lightly, although there is some risk backing a team that managed just 13 points last weekend.
Still, the Falcons rank 1st in the nation with 329.6 rushing yards per game, while ranking 1st in the country in passing defense with just 151.7 yards per game allowed. In addition, USAFA is 7th in the nation in both total yards (273.6) and points per game (15.7) allowed. UNM will have difficulty doing anything offensively here.
UNDER 37.5 (-109) is a decent play here, even though a total in the 30s is super low for this day and age.
There are a handful of things working against Over bettors here. First off, Air Force’s defense is legit, and New Mexico will have a whale of a time trying to cobble together any offense. The Lobos have averaged just 9.7 PPG in the past 3 games, and that’s against New Mexico State, Fresno State and Utah State, teams with OK defenses, but not lockdown versions.
New Mexico is actually somewhat serviceable on defense, and Air Force will not be able to pile up a ton of points, either, especially since it almost always runs the ball and passes are few and far between.
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