Nottingham Forest vs Burnley betting tips
Nottingham Forest and Burnley will go head-to-head in the Premier League for the first time on Monday night (8pm, Sky Sports).
Despite a tough fixture list, Forest have made a solid start to the 2023/24 season with two wins in their first four games.
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Burnley have found things tougher upon their return to the top flight and Vincent Kompany’s side will be looking to end a three-game winless streak at the City Ground.
Forest are the favourites with football betting sites as they strive to avenge a 1-0 defeat by Burnley in the EFL Cup last month.
Forest vs Burnley tips: Home advantage could be key
Burnley will draw optimism from that victory at the City Ground at the end of August, although it should be noted that Nottingham Forest did not name their strongest side on that occasion.
Still, a clean sheet was a rare defensive positive for Kompany and co. Burnley have otherwise been weak at the back this season, conceding 11 goals in their first three matches.
None of their games have been easy, with Manchester City, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur providing the opposition.
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This is an easier match on paper, but Burnley are yet to play away from home in this Premier League season and on Monday they will travel to a venue where Forest were relatively strong last term.
Steve Cooper’s side had a dismal away record in 2022/23, but they finished 10th in the home table to avoid relegation to the Championship. Seventy-nine per cent of their points came in front of their own fans.
Forest also beat Sheffield United at the City Ground in their first home game of the current campaign and Burnley will find it difficult to come away from the East Midlands with another positive result.
Tip: Nottingham Forest to win – 6/5 with bet365
Burnley’s open approach makes goals likely
Going into the weekend Burnley had conceded more goals than any other team in the division, despite having played a game fewer than everyone but Luton.
The nadir was a 5-1 home defeat by Tottenham Hotspur immediately prior to the international break. Ange Postecoglou has made Spurs a potent attacking force but they were nevertheless able to cut through the Burnley lines far too easily.
The Clarets routinely dominated possession in the Championship and they are struggling to adapt to a league where other teams are capable of taking the ball away from them for long periods.
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As such, they are fourth favourites to be relegated in the latest Premier League odds.
Nottingham Forest are a counter-attacking side and they will be content to cede possession before breaking forward at speed in transition.
Burnley have shown some attacking promise so far and they will believe they can find the back of the net here but keeping Forest out will be much tougher.
Tip: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals – 6/5 with William Hill
Awoniyi can continue fine form in recent months
If Tiawo Awoniyi had stayed fit for the entirety of last season, Nottingham Forest would probably have secured their top-tier status with a few weeks to spare.
The former Union Berlin frontman is deadly in and around the penalty area. He has scored nine goals in his last eight Premier League appearances stretching back to last term. Awoniyi’s three goals this season have come from just six shots.
That might appear to suggest that his scoring rate is unsustainable, but it is worth noting that Forest have already had to face Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea. Against teams like Burnley, Awoniyi should get off more attempts at goal.
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As we have already discovered, the Clarets are struggling to keep opposition attacks at arm’s length.
They are giving up an average of 18 shots per game, so Awoniyi should get some decent opportunities here. In the form he is in, we fancy his chances of taking at least one of them.
Bookmakers generally offer odds of around 6/4 on him scoring at any stage in the match.
Tip: Taiwo Awoniyi to score any time – 6/4 with BoyleSports
A London-based football specialist, Greg Lea has written for multiple top publications including The Guardian and ESPN with coverage of the Premier League, Champions League and World Cup. He contributes football betting tips to The Independent.