With three different champions in the last three years, Serie A has proved highly competitive and the upcoming season should be entertaining
The 2022-23 Serie A season is fast approaching, so it’s time to take a look at our betting predictions and preseason bet tips. Both Milan clubs have finished in the top two in each of the last two campaigns, so it’ll be interesting if we see a change this time around.
We’ve seen a fair share of notable transfers that could impact the Serie A table, including striker Romelu Lukaku returning to Intern on loan from Chelsea and attacking midfielder Paulo Dybala joining Roma.
Juventus also made a splash by bringing back midfielder Paul Pogba and adding winger Angel Di Maria. Meanwhile, AC Milan brought in striker Divock Origi as they try to defend their title.
In this article, we’re going to take a look at the betting odds to guide you as you make your futures wagers on the Serie A. When wagering on this bet type, it’s best to mix in your favorite choice with a couple of sleepers. With that in mind, let’s dive in.
Note: All Serie A betting odds are current as of July 19, 2022, at BetMGM Sportsbook:
Inter Milan (+175)
AC Milan (+275)
SSC Napoli (+650)
AS Roma (+1400)
Atalanta BC (+2500)
ACF Fiorentina (+5000)
AC Monza (+15000)
Torino FC (+25000)
Hellas Verona (+50000)
Sassuolo Calcio (+50000)
Bologna FC (+75000)
FC Empoli (+100000)
Udinese Calcio (+100000)
Spezia Calcio (+150000)
US Salernitana (+150000)
US Lecce (+200000)
US Cremonese (+200000)
The top tier of teams this year features Inter Milan, Juventus, and AC Milan. This is no surprise, as each of these clubs has found itself at the top of the table in the last three seasons.
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The reason why Inter is currently the favorite is because they have the longest track record of recent success, while they’ve also brought back Romelu Lukaku. Juventus has surpassed AC Milan following their big additions of Angel Di Maria and Paul Pogba.
The second tier includes Napoli and Roma, two mid-level clubs that always have a chance to surprise in any given season.
The problem for Napoli is they’ll have to deal with the loss of standout defender Kalidou Koulibaly, who departed for Chelsea this summer. Roma bolstered their attack with the addition of Paulo Dybala, giving manager Jose Mourinho an imposing duo that also features English striker Tammy Abraham, who potted 17 goals last year, fifth-most in Serie A.
The remaining clubs feature two sleepers in Atalanta and Lazio, the former of which is coming off a disappointing eighth-place finish after coming in third in the previous campaign. Atalanta still has some intriguing attackers like Luis Muriel and Mario Pašalić to lead the way for manager Gian Piero Gasperini’s free-flowing tactics. Lazio looks to build on a fifth-place finish and ascend into a Champions League spot. They’ve added Alessio Romagnoli to bolster their defense.
The rest of the clubs have little hope for a league title, but we need to make note of Serie B newcomer AC Monza. It’s their first time in Serie A, but they’ve shown a willingness to spend. They’re backed by Italian billionaire and former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, who owned AC Milan from 1986 to 2017 and took over Monza in 2018.
Monza has added midfielders Matteo Pessina and Stefano Sensi, along with defender Andrea Ranocchia. They even have a stud young goalkeeper in Alessio Cragno. Keep an eye on this club.
Inter Milan (+175)
Take a look at Inter’s league finishes in the last three seasons (2nd, 1st, 2nd) and you’ll see why they’re favored once again this year. This is a club that lost out on the league title in the final week of last season. They’re set up nicely to lead the way in 2022-23.
The Nerazzurri brought back Romelu Lukaku on loan from Chelsea. When we last saw the Belgian international in Italy, it was in the 2020-21 season when he scored 24 goals and added 11 assists, ranking second in Serie A in both categories. He has a chance to make a major impact on an Inter attack that also includes Lautauro Martinez and Edin Džeko. There’s more depth here now.
The midfield is led by Italian standout Nicolò Barella, who is joined by Hakan Çalhanoğlu along with some depth in veteran Henrikh Mkhitaryan. There’s a lot of skill and creativity within this group, so expect to see a fair share of goals from Inter this campaign. The defense remains stout, backed by Milan Škriniar and Alessandro Bastoni. They even added goalkeeping depth with André Onana. This is the team to beat this season.
SSC Napoli (+650)
Napoli has been a consistent presence towards the top of the table in recent seasons, finishing 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 2nd in the last four years. While this solid track record explains why they’re near the top of the odds board for this campaign, there are a few reasons for concern this time around.
The team lost stud defender Kalidou Koulibaly, who was one of the best center backs in Serie A. Long-time winger Lorenzo Insigne also departed for Toronto FC of Major League Soccer. Even veteran Dries Mertens was allowed to walk.
Those are three big pieces on both sides of the pitch. The team will need to rely on striker Victor Osimhen (14 goals last season) and El Tri winger Hirving Lozano. Juan Jesus will have to anchor the defense to offset the loss of Koulibaly.
Having said that, despite these losses, you can count on Napoli remaining among the top six teams in the league at the very least. This is a club that scored 74 goals last season, which was second-most in Serie A, so their attack should still remain above average. They’re worth a shot at (+650) odds.
AS Roma (+1400)
In their first season under legendary manager Jose Mourinho, AS Roma improved from 18-8-12 (7th) to 18-9-11 (6th). While it’s only an incremental improvement, if we dig deeper, we see some reasons for optimism.
Roma captured its first trophy in 11 years, winning the first ever UEFA Europa Conference League final against Feyenoord. They were also much tougher defensively, allowing only 53 goals under Mourinho after giving up 58 in the previous campaign.
It’s clear that this team is buying into his system and trending upwards heading into 2022-23. They made a huge addition in bringing over Paulo Dybala, who now joins Tammy Abraham and Nicolò Zaniolo to form an imposing attack. If the team can maintain that success in goal prevention (sixth-fewest last season), we could see them soar up the table.
The Giallorossi have the ingredients for a surprising season: a manager with a superb track record, a young roster buying into his tactics, and a splash addition to bolster their attack. They’re my favorite sleeper pick for the upcoming season. We could see them rise up the ranks as AC Milan did from 2018-19 to 2019-20 when they moved up from 6th to 2nd.
Atalanta BC (+2500)
Atalanta has made waves for their attacking tactics, a style that has resulted in success in Serie A, with three consecutive third-place finishes before a disappointing eighth-place rank in 2021-22. Rolling with them this year is banking on a return to Champions League contention, where you can potentially open up hedging opportunities if they’re in the lead early in the campaign.
This is important because it’s going to be tough for them to knock off the likes of Inter Milan, AC Milan, and Juventus. Even Napoli and Roma look to be in a better position to challenge the giants of Serie A. However, Atalanta still looks like good value at (+2500) odds given their recent success in the league.
This team features young talents like 18-year-old center back Giorgio Scalvini, who can make an impact as part of Italy’s next generation. They also added Brazilian midfielder Éderson, a 23-year-old who helped Salernitana stay in Serie A last season. We could see them get back to the top four this year.
While the clubs listed above have a chance to win and are worth a shot at their value, the best bet looks like Juventus to return to prominence and regain their position at the top of the table in Serie A. This is a team coming off a pair of consecutive disappointing campaigns, finishing fourth each year after winning the league the nine previous seasons.
In response, they brought back Paul Pogba, who should make a major impact in the midfield after failing to meet lofty expectations at Manchester United. They also added Angel Di Maria, a veteran winger who should thrive in Serie A. He’ll help make up for the loss of Paulo Dybala.
On defense, the team lost Matthijs de Ligt, but that’s expected to be offset by the addition of Gleison Bremer, a 25-year-old Brazilian center back who played exceptionally well for Torino this past season, winning Serie A Defender of the Year.
The Bianconeri have overtaken AC Milan as the biggest threat to Inter, as the defending champion Rossoneri haven’t really done much in this transfer market to make us hopeful that they’ll repeat as league winners. We’re getting better odds here at (+200) and there’s a reasonable chance that we see this number move as we get closer to the season.
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Prop bets for Serie A have not been posted yet, but here are a few I’d look to make:
Juventus 1st/Inter Milan 2nd Exact Finish (+700 or better)
Juventus and Inter are the class of Serie A, even with AC Milan winning the league last year. The Bianconeri have made some huge additions to their squad, putting them in a good position to get back on top in Italy. I really like the Paul Pogba and Angel Di Maria moves to help strengthen their attack.
When you also consider that Inter is bringing back Romelu Lukaku, it really starts to look like a two-team race. AC Milan simply did not do enough in the transfer window so far to keep pace with these other two juggernauts, both of which have clearly improved their rosters.
Since Juventus is (+200) and Inter is (+175) to win the league, there’s a good chance that this result would fetch around (+700) odds.
Roma to Finish in the Top Four (+200 or better)
Roma is a club on the rise under manager Jose Mourinho. The addition of Paulo Dybala is likely to make an impact on the offensive end. This is my dark horse pick to win Serie A, so I’d love to get them around (+200) odds to secure a Champions League spot. While their most likely finish is fourth, I think that the pieces are in place for them to get this done.
If you look at Napoli, Roma’s main competition for fourth place, you see a team on the decline. The losses of Kalidou Koulibaly and Lorenzo Insigne are likely to prove too much to overcome.
There’s a reasonable chance this team finishes outside of the top six, never mind the top four. This opens up an opportunity for Mourinho’s boys to climb the table.
Serie A Top Goalscorer: Dušan Vlahović (+300 or better)
Dušan Vlahović finished second with 24 goals last season, three behind league leader Ciro Immobile. The Serbian international has now scored 20+ goals in each of the last two years, one with Juventus and the other with Fiorentina. He’s in a good spot to build on his first year with the Bianconeri.
That’s because the team has done a good job upgrading their roster by adding Paul Pogba and Angel Di Maria. Pogba should really shore up this midfield, allowing Juventus to maintain possession at a higher rate and generate more scoring chances, opening up an opportunity for Vlahović to set a career high in goals.
He’ll likely be second in the odds behind Immobile. I’m willing to place a wager at (+300) or better.
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