Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays (41-19) and Boston Red Sox (30-28) play the 3rd game of a 4-game series in Beantown Sunday. First pitch from Fenway Park is slated for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rays lead 5-1

The Rays have won 4 of their last 6 against AL East teams after splitting a doubleheader Saturday, losing the opener 8-5 and winning the nightcap 4-2. Tampa looks to continue their dominance of Boston this season, having outscored them 35-22 in the 6 games played.

Boston is 2-3 on its current 7-game homestand. The Red Sox have won 3 of their 4 Sunday home games this season. They have lost 8 of their last 12 games overall.

Rays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Taj Bradley vs. RHP Tanner Houck

Bradley (3-2, 3.60 ERA) makes his 7th start of 2023. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 in 30 innings.

Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 1-0 loss at Chicago Cubs Monday
Only start vs Red Sox: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 9-7 home win April 12

Houck (3-4, 5.30 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 52 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in a 4-2 loss at Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday
Only start vs Rays: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 8-1 home loss Aug. 12, 2021
Has not won a game since April 20

Rays at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:51 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rays -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Rays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 6, Red Sox 5

Moneyline

I’m going to jump on the RAYS (-120), because the Red Sox have no confidence against this team.

Bradley has been brilliant on the road this season sporting a stellar 1.13 ERA in 3 starts. Houck has allowed at least 3 ER in 6 of his last 7 starts.

BET THE RAYS (-120)

Run line/Against the spread

Despite the juicy odds on the Rays to cover the spread (+135) I am going to avoid this bet. While I am confident Tampa wins, I am not as confident they win by 2 or more runs. The Rays have lost 5 of their last 7 on the road.

Bet the moneyline and AVOID the run line.

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Over/Under

I like this game to go Over. The Rays have scored the 2nd-most runs in the MLB (349 total, 5.8 per game). Tampa also has the 2nd-best batting average in baseball (.268). Boston has scored the 4th-most runs in MLB (303). The Red Sox have been over this total in 4 of their last 5 games.

BET OVER 9 (-120).

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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