Pilot hiring pauses by United and Southwest suggest that the pilot shortage that afflicted the U.S. airline industry in the aftermath of the pandemic has come to an end. 

The reality, though, is more nuanced.

While mainline carriers have overcome their pilot shortages, and in some cases are now concerned about having too many pilots as Boeing delivery delays and Airbus aircraft maintenance issues stunt capacity growth, the regional carriers that do the flying for the American Eagle, United Express and Delta Connection remain constrained by a shortage of captains.

The good news, however, is that the hiring slowdown at the mainline carriers could give those regional airlines, which faced record pilot attrition in 2022 and 2023 as mainline carriers gobbled up their captains, a chance to catch up.

“Depending on how long the hiring slowdown lasts, the regional airlines might be able to pull their larger airplanes parked in the desert and grow their operations into a full schedule,” said Louis Smith, chairman and president of Nevada-based pilot advisory FAPA.

Such a scenario, in turn, could enable the major carriers to feed their mainline operations with a more robust slate of regional routes, increasing demand and helping profitability, said pilot career services consultant Kit Darby.

“If the airlines are profitable, they will want to turn that into more planes and more routes, and they’ll need more pilots,” Darby added.

The pilot hiring slowdown among the mainline carriers is exemplified most clearly by United’s recent decision to pause hiring in May and June due to Boeing aircraft delivery delays and Southwest’s indefinite pause on hiring, effective this month, also influenced by Boeing delays. 

United has also offered pilots voluntary leave in May.

The slowdown, though, is broader than that. For the first two months of this year, the 10 largest mainline U.S. airlines hired fewer than 1,700 pilots, according to FAPA data, compared with more than 2,200 last year.

An eventual slowdown was likely inevitable after those carriers hired approximately 13,000 pilots in both 2022 and 2023, an increase of more 250% from the prepandemic pace.

For the Big Three, those hirings came at the expense of their own regional networks, since captains for regional partners were their primary hiring source.

As of January, SkyWest, the largest U.S. regional carrier, was approximately 1,000 pilots short of its prepandemic number, CEO Chip Childs said at the time.

First officers are no longer an issue, he said, noting that flight schools are well supplied. And FAA statistics show a surge in the issuance of new Air Transport Pilot licenses over the past two years.

Fewer captains, grounded regional planes 

The shortfall at the regional carriers is among captains, who are required to have flown 1,000 hours at a commercial carrier. The lack of available captains continues to leave aircraft grounded.

As of the end of last year, American had 77 American Eagle planes in storage, United had 103 regional jets grounded and Delta had 14 parked regional aircraft. American, which has the largest U.S. regional network and has made that regional advantage a focal point of its long-term strategy, doesn’t expect to get its full complement of regional aircraft back into service until 2026.

The shortage has forced regional carriers to take strong measures. The average first-year pay for a U.S. regional pilot increased from $74,000 to $109,000 between July 2022 and March of last year alone, according to figures compiled by Darby. Meanwhile, some carriers have offered $200,000 hiring bonuses for direct-entry captains, including American subsidiary PSA, whose offer extended through last month.

The slowdown of pilot hiring among mainline carriers could be a welcome respite for regional carriers and the entire U.S. airline system, Darby said, provided that demand remains strong enough that it doesn’t last too long.

“The system has been under tremendous stress,” he said of pilot hiring and training. “Everybody has been going at a pace we’ve never had before for the last couple years.”

Uncertainty in the long term

The longer-term pilot supply outlook is uncertain. 

In October, consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimated a pilot shortfall across North America would persist for the next decade, with a 2032 shortfall of 13,000 pilots being similar to the shortage that exists today. 

Mandatory retirements at age 65, which Oliver Wyman expects to peak in 2025-26, coupled with industry growth, will present challenges to resolving the shortfall even if pilot certification levels continue at their elevated pace, said Daniel Rye, a partner in Oliver Wyman’s aviation practice. 

Harder to predict is what the broader economic picture, including consumer demand, will look like over time. 

“There is certainly one scenario where fleet deliveries remain lower than anticipated and pilot demand growth remains muted, resulting in a mitigated U.S. pilot shortage,” Rye said.