CHIEFS RECEIVE:

• 2024 first-round pick (No. 9 overall) | 1,350 points

BEARS RECEIVE:

• 2024 first-round pick (No. 32 overall) | 590 points
• 2024 second-round pick (No. 64) | 270 points
• 2024 fourth-round pick (No. 131) | 41 points
• 2025 first-round pick | 740 points (valued at the 24th pick in the round)

COST: Chiefs pay a 22% premium (1,641 points) to move up 23 spots into the top 10 for Travis Kelce‘s successor.

Why Kansas City wins: The last time the Chiefs picked in the top 10, in 2017, they moved up to grab Patrick Mahomes. That cost them their first-round selection in 2018, and the highest they’ve picked since then was No. 21 overall in 2022, when they jumped up for Trent McDuffie. They’ve also tried to fill out Mahomes’ crew of pass-catchers using a mix of Day 2 upside plays (Mecole Hardman in 2019, Skyy Moore in 2022 and Rashee Rice last year) and veteran free agents (Sammy Watkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling). This strategy has kind of worked, even without Tyreek Hill in the fold, thanks in large part to the continued excellence of tight end Travis Kelce. The 34-year-old can’t help anchor the offense forever, though, so in this scenario, Kansas City stops playing the lottery and goes hard for a legitimate blue-chipper. And yeah, that could mean grabbing a marquee receiver like Rome Odunze, should one fall to No. 9, but it would be even spicier for the Chiefs to nab tight end Brock Bowers (barring someone else jumping on Bowers even earlier, as Gennaro suggested above). In the best-case scenario, Bowers hits the ground running like Sam LaPorta did in Detroit last year, giving the passing game an immediate injection of A-plus talent, adding another truly dynamic option for Mahomes to work with and providing a buffer against any time Rice might miss as part of potential discipline for his alleged involvement in a high-speed crash. Plus, with Kelce still producing at a high level, Bowers would have the freedom to deal with the growing pains that typically hit rookie tight ends.

Why Chicago wins: It’s tough to pass on the chance to pair the No. 1 overall pick (presumably Caleb Williams) with another top-10 talent. But thanks to past trades (including the deals that landed them Montez Sweat and Keenan Allen), the Bears currently have just four total selections in this year’s draft. It’s surely tempting to follow the formula that fueled the Texans’ quick turnaround last year, when Houston paired rookie QB C.J. Stroud with a second star (No. 3 overall pick Will Anderson Jr.) early in Round 1 — but we shouldn’t forget that the Texans also snagged a crucial piece much later on (Tank Dell at No. 69 overall). In this scenario, Chicago walks away with more chances to add help and depth on Days 2 and 3 while preserving its ability to scoop up an impact pass-rusher or (especially in this draft) pass-catcher at No. 32. I know this is exactly the kind of savvy, value-forward thinking I’m telling the Chiefs to move away from above, but these teams are on different timelines, which is what makes this a win-win proposition. The Bears need to get the most out of their next quarterback’s rookie contract. They already juiced the surrounding cast on offense with an influx of veterans (Allen, D’Andre Swift, Gerald Everett), and the defense rounded into shape late last season. GM Ryan Poles has proven he can find talent outside of Round 1. This move gives him a few more bites at that apple. Plus, the Bears would get to head into yet another draft with two first-round picks, providing them with added roster-building flexibility in Year 2 of their new QB’s career.

— Tom Blair